In recent years, autonomous driving has become the focus of giants' collective layout. GM bought artificial intelligence startup ArgoAI for $ 1 billion; Intel bought Mobileye for $ 15.3 billion; Baidu reorganized the intelligent driving group division in March after Lu Qi airborne to Baidu. Currently, more than 10 of the 20 leading technology companies in the world are conducting research and development of autonomous driving technologies; 12 of the world's top 14 large car companies are already doing autonomous driving. This boom in the field of autonomous driving will also drive the development of the automotive camera market.
????According to statistics from French authoritative market analysis agency Yole Développement, intelligent driving is mainly realized through cameras (long-distance cameras, surround cameras, and stereo cameras) and sensors; the most advanced smart cars currently use 17 sensors (referred to only for autonomous driving) Function) and is expected to reach 29 sensors by 2030.
????According to the predictions and judgments of well-known institutions, it is expected that the global vehicle camera and night vision systems and other markets will enter a rapid growth period around 2020. Among them, the vehicle camera: the market size in 2015 is 6.2 billion yuan, and in 2020 it will reach 13.3 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 16%; night vision system: the market size in 2015 will be 29.3 billion yuan, and in 2020 it will reach 51.4 billion yuan. The compound annual growth rate is 12%.
Self-driving set off a new wave of car cameras
Global sensor market size (Source: Tianfeng Securities Research Institute)
????The on-board camera is the basis for many ADAS functions. Among many ADAS functions, the visual image processing system is more basic and more intuitive for the driver, and the camera is the basis of the visual image processing system, so the on-board camera is essential for intelligent driving. Lane departure warning (LDW), forward collision warning (FCW), traffic sign recognition (TSR), lane keeping assistance (LKA), pedestrian collision warning (PCW), panoramic parking (SVP), driver fatigue warning and many other functions They can all be implemented with the help of cameras, and some functions can only be implemented with cameras.
????The price of on-board cameras continues to fall, and multi-cameras for bicycles will become a trend in the future. The cost of the camera is relatively low, and the price has continued to fall from more than 300 yuan in 2010. By 2014, the price of a single camera has been reduced to about 200 yuan. Compared with other sensors, it is cheaper and easier to popularize. Tesla's Autopilot 2.0 hardware system includes eight cameras. In the future, bicycles and multiple cameras will become a trend. According to the requirements of different ADAS functions, the installation positions of the cameras are also different. According to the installation position of the camera, it can be divided into four parts: front view, side view, rear view and built-in. To achieve a full set of ADAS functions in the future, bicycles must be equipped with at least 5 cameras.
????The forward-looking camera is used most frequently, and a single camera can achieve multiple functions. Through algorithm development and optimization, a single forward-looking camera can achieve multiple functions, such as driving records, lane departure warning, forward collision warning, and pedestrian recognition. In the future, it is also expected to realize more ADAS functions through algorithm integration. The front-view camera is generally a wide-angle lens, which is installed on the rear-view mirror in the car or a higher position on the front windshield to achieve a longer effective distance. Tesla's Autopilot 2.0 hardware system has three forward-looking cameras, which are normal, telephoto, and wide-angle cameras. The three cameras can cover a longer distance and a wider field of view. The detection accuracy and security will be greatly improved. improve. Tesla's approach is also expected to be followed by latecomers.
????Side-view cameras will become the trend instead of rear-view mirrors. Because the scope of the rearview mirror is limited, when another car behind the diagonal is outside this range, it is 'invisible'. The part outside this range is called the blind zone. Because of the existence of blind spots, the probability of traffic accidents has greatly increased. Adding side-view cameras on both sides of the vehicle can basically cover the blind spot. When a vehicle enters the blind spot, it will automatically remind the driver to pay attention. This is the blind spot monitoring system.
????At present, a new trend has emerged, which is to use side-view wide-angle cameras instead of rear-view mirrors, which can reduce wind resistance while obtaining a wider and wider viewing angle, and avoid accidents in dangerous blind areas. The BMW i8 Mirrorless concept car Adopt this design. Japan has also revised regulations to allow vehicles without rear-view mirrors to go on the road and encourage the use of side-view cameras to replace rear-view mirrors. The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration also recently promised to amend the regulations to eliminate vehicles without rear-view mirrors that are not allowed on the road limit. We believe that the replacement of rear view mirrors by side-view cameras not only reduces wind resistance, but also covers blind areas, which is safer and will become a development trend in the future.
????The panoramic parking system uses multiple cameras around the body to help parking open a 'God perspective'. The panoramic parking system uses multiple ultra-wide-angle cameras installed around the vehicle body to simultaneously capture images of the vehicle's surroundings. After being corrected and stitched by the image processing unit, a panoramic top view of the vehicle's surroundings is formed and transmitted to the display device in the center console in real time. on. The driver can intuitively see the position of the vehicle and the obstacles reported by the vehicle in the 'God perspective' while sitting in the vehicle. He can easily manipulate the parking space or pass the complicated road surface to effectively reduce the occurrence of scratches and collisions.
????Automotive cameras are widely used and relatively inexpensive. They are the most basic and common sensors. The market space in the future will exceed 10 billion yuan. The camera is indispensable for multiple ADAS functions, and the unit price is expected to continue to decrease in the future, which will drive the rapid growth of the automotive camera market space. According to HIS estimates, global vehicle camera shipments will grow from 28 million in 2014 to 83 million in 2020, a compound growth rate of 20%. Based on this estimate, the global automotive camera market size will increase from RMB 6.2 billion in 2015 to RMB 13.3 billion in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 16%. Consumption regions are mainly in the Americas, Europe, Asia-Pacific and other places. Among them, the Asia-Pacific region will become the fastest growing market.
????It is estimated that the domestic demand for vehicle cameras will reach 42 million units in 2020, with a market size of more than 6 billion yuan. In 2015, the domestic vehicle camera demand was approximately 13 million. A simple calculation of the domestic vehicle camera market size is as follows:
????1) Assuming that passenger car sales in Taiwan maintain a compound annual growth rate of 5%, passenger car sales will reach 26.99 million by 2020;
????2) Assume that by 2020, the penetration rate of the front-view camera (1) is close to 40%; the penetration rate of the side-view camera (2) is 20%; the penetration rate of the rear-view camera (1) is 50%; the built-in camera (1) ) Is 5%;
????3) Considering the huge car ownership in China, the aftermarket cannot be ignored. Assuming that the after-installation only considers the front-view camera (1) and the rear-view camera (1), and the penetration rate is 10%, then the after-installation market will increase the demand for more than 4 million units each year. Based on the above assumptions, it can be estimated that by 2020, the domestic automotive camera market will have an additional demand of about 42 million units. Based on the unit price of 160 yuan, the market size will reach 6.7 billion yuan.
????The camera industry chain is mainly composed of lens groups, CMOS, DSP, and module packaging. In recent years, the rapid growth of smart phones has driven the booming development of the camera market, but since 2014, the growth rate of smart phones has slowed down, and the future growth rate of mobile phone cameras will also slow down. With the rise of the automotive camera market, the production capacity of all links in the mobile camera industry chain will shift to the automotive camera industry. It is expected that in the future, industrial chain links such as CMOS, lenses, and module packaging will continue to maintain high growth.
????CMOS is the core component of a camera and is widely used in automotive cameras. CMOS is a light-receiving element of a camera. Compared with CCD light-receiving elements, the imaging quality is slightly worse, but the cost is lower, and it is more power-efficient. In addition, CMOS has two important advantages over CCD:
????1) Fast. The CMOS photoelectric sensor can take out electrical signals while collecting light signals, and can simultaneously process image information of each unit. The speed is much faster than the CCD charge coupler. The high-performance CMOS camera image acquisition speed can reach 5,000 frames / second;
????2) High dynamic range. When the vehicle is driving at a high speed, the light conditions change drastically and frequently. COMS can quickly identify surrounding objects even in environments with large differences in brightness. CMOS value accounts for about one-third of the cost of the camera, and is basically controlled by foreign brands. Sony, Samsung and OmniVision have a market share of more than 60%.
????Sony has always held the number one market share position in the global CMOS sensor field. With its deep technology accumulated in CMOS and the acquisition of the Toshiba image sensor business, Sony's market share is expected to further expand. The CMOS market is basically controlled by foreign brands, and domestic brands have a weaker voice. OmniVision is one of the major shareholders of Jingfang Technology, a domestic CMOS packaging company, and a major customer of Jingfang Technology. Therefore, Jingfang Technology is expected to benefit from the substantial increase in CMOS demand.
????The lens is also an important part of the camera, and domestic independent brand companies have obvious advantages. According to TSR's research report, among the global camera lens manufacturers in 2015, Taiwanese company Dali Optoelectronics still maintained the number one shipment, accounting for about one-third of the global market share. The domestic Sunny Optics surpassed Yujing with a slight advantage, rising to the second place. In the automotive camera lens market, Sunny Optical's lens shipments rank first in the world, with a market share of about 30%, and it has entered the major vehicle manufacturers (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) front-loading market.
????The vehicle camera module assembly process is complicated and the market barrier is high, but domestic manufacturers have entered. Compared with consumer electronics such as mobile phone cameras, automotive cameras require higher security levels, more complicated processes, and higher market barriers. Panasonic, Sony, Valeo, Fujitsu-ten and other manufacturers occupy a large share. The market concentration of automotive camera module packaging is also higher than that of mobile phone cameras. Domestic manufacturers such as Sunny Optical and Ophelia have the largest market share in mobile phone camera packaging. They have now fully entered the manufacturing of automotive camera module packaging.